The Science Bit

    [migrated from wave, needs tidying]
    To determine whether an encounter takes place when the party travels using a game week move action, the overlord looks at the trail being traversed. Each trail is marked with a colored
    shield and a number. The color of the shield indicates the danger level of the trail, while the number represents the amount of traffic on it. The overlord rolls a number of black power dice equal to the number on the shield. If the shield is green (a safe trail) then any blanks rolled indicate an encounter. If the shield is yellow (an unsafe trail), then any surges rolled indicate an encounter. If the shield is red (a dangerous trail), then any power enhancements rolled indicate an encounter.

    Black dice have 6 sides: 3 enhancements, 2 surges and 1 blank


    Chance of
    encounter
    Dawnsmoor River Yellow 2 56% Flametail River
    Path Green 2 31% Misty Plains
    River Yellow 2 56% Blackwing Swamp
    Forge Secret Yellow 1 33% Valley of Souls
    Path Yellow 1 33% Broken Crags
    River Green 1 17% Red Echo River
    Frostgate Path Yellow 2 56% Gate to the North
    Secret Red 1 50% Shika’s Tree
    Path Yellow 2 56% Blind Mur forest
    Path Yellow 2 56% Howling Giant Hills
    River Yellow 1 33% River of Sleep
    Greyhaven River Yellow 2 56% Korina's Tears
    Path Green 3 42% Gate to the North
    River Green 1 17% Plains of the Ruby Gate
    River Green 1 17% Nerekhall
    Path Green 4 52% Tamalir
    Nerekhall Path Red 2 75% Crimson Forest
    Path Red 1 50% Caverns of Thull
    River Red 1 50% Sacred Bog of Bator
    River Green 1 17% Grey Haven
    Riverwatch River Green 1 17% Moonglow Marsh
    Path Green 1 17% Thelsvan Highway
    Path Yellow 1 33% Ashen Hills
    Path Green 3 42% Vynelvale
    River Green 2 31% Morshan River
    Vynelvale River Yellow 2 56% Applewood Forest
    River Green 2 31% Morshan River
    Path Green 2 31% Guardian Hills
    Tamalir Path Green 4 52% Greyhaven
    Path Red 1 50% Blackwing Swamp
    River Green 2 31% Red Echo River
    Path Green 3 42% Thelsvan Highway
    Path Green 2 31% Starfall Forest
    Blind Mur Forest Path Yellow 1 33% Howling Giant Hills
    Howling Giant Hills Path Yellow 1 33% Blind Mur forest
    Plains of the Ruby Gate Secret Red 1 50% Shadow Peaks
    River of Sleep River Red 1 50% The Fools Rapids
    Howling Giant Hills Path Red 1 50% Whispering Forest
    Whispering Forest Path Yellow 2 56% The Gaping Abyss
    The Gaping Abyss Secret Red 2 75% Broken Crags
    Shadow Peaks Secret Red 2 75% Hanging Woods
    Red Echo River River Green 1 17% Forge
    Red Echo River Path Yellow 2 56% Hanging Woods
    Hanging Woods Path Yellow 2 56% Red Echo River
    Thelsvan Highway Path Green 1 17% Gardens of Tarn
    Ashen Hills Path Red 1 50% Velvet Plains
    Velvet Plains Path Yellow 2 56% Applewood Forest
    Applewood Forest River Yellow 2 56% Vynelvale
    Morshan River River Green 2 31% Vynelvale
    Morshan River River Green 2 31% Riverwatch
    Guardian Hills Secret Red 1 50% Mountains of Despair
    Mountains of Despair Secret Red 1 50% Smokblue Hills
    Smokblue Hills Secret Yellow 1 33% Bitter Downs
    Bitter Downs Path Red 1 50% Olmric’s Hut
    Olmric’s Hut Path Red 1 50% Bitter Downs
    Bitter Downs Path Yellow 1 33% Misty Plains
    Bitter Downs Path Red 2 75% Blackthorn Grove
    Starfall Forest Path Green 2 31% Tamalir

    In General

    Low Chance of Encounter
    Green 1 17%
    Green 2 31%
    Yellow 1 33%
    Green 3 42%
    Red 1 50%
    Green 4 52%
    Yellow 2 56%
    Red 2 75%
    High chance of Encounter

    NB: Sometimes it's better to travel on a red route than a green route... who'd have thunk it! 

    DICE


    While maths alone won't get you through the dungeon it certainly doesn't hurt to have every weapon in your arsenal sharpened to a fine point ; )

    FACES
    Min Max Average 1 2 3 4 5 6
    BLACK
    Range or Damage 0 1 0.50 0 0 0 1 1 1
    Surge 0 1 0.33 0 1 1 0 0 0
    Blank 0 1 0.17 1 0 0 0 0 0
    RED
    Range 0 2 1.20 0 0 2 2 1 1
    Damage 0 4 2.60 0 4 2 1 3 3
    Surge 0 1 0.40 0 0 0 1 0 1
    Miss 0 1 0.17 1 0 0 0 0 0
    BLUE
    Range 0 4 2.60 0 2 1 3 3 4
    Damage 0 2 1.20 0 2 2 1 1 0
    Surge 0 1 0.60 0 0 0 1 1 1
    Miss 0 1 0.17 1 0 0 0 0 0
    WHITE
    Range 0 3 2.00 0 1 2 3 3 1
    Damage 0 3 2.00 0 3 2 1 1 3
    Surge 0 1 0.80 0 1 0 1 1 1
    Miss 0 1 0.17 1 0 0 0 0 0
    GREEN
    Range 0 1 0.33 1 0 1 0 0 0
    Damage 1 3 2.17 1 3 2 3 2 2
    Surge 0 1 0.33 0 0 0 0 1 1
    YELLOW
    Range 1 3 2.17 1 3 2 3 2 2
    Damage 0 1 0.33 1 0 1 0 0 0
    Surge 0 1 0.33 0 0 0 0 1 1

    NB: Where a miss result is possible on a die the average damage / range / surge is calculated ignoring this result. i.e a black dice has a 2 in 6 chance of a surge whereas a red dice has a 2 in 5 chance of a surge on a non-miss result. An Aimed roll will halve the chance of a miss on one dice with a miss result and add on average another 0.5 damage / range / surge.
    eg 2 red dice average damage is 5.2 chance to miss = 34%
    Aimed 2 red dice average damage is 5.7 chance to miss = 25.5%
    Feel free to argue the maths we all like a good debate <sigh>